Wine production exceeded sales in 2024-25, leading to a rise of five percent in national stock levels, according to the Australian Wine Production, Sales and Inventory Report 2025, released today by Wine Australia.
“Currently there is an excess of around 262 million litres of wine in stock, based on the 2024-25 sales volume,” says Wine Australia manager, Market Insights, Peter Bailey.
“That is the equivalent of around 375,000 tonnes of winegrapes.
“To remove this excess, the next few vintages would need to be below the 1.5 million tonne level.”
Summary and outlook
The worsening imbalance between supply and demand comes as global conditions for wine remain tough. Analysis of global market conditions suggests that the outlook for wine has deteriorated in the past 12 months. Global consumption has continued to decline and remains lower than global production. Consumption is forecast to decrease further in the next five years.
These unfavourable market conditions are compounded for Australia by the high stock levels carried forward from 2024-25. The increase in Australian wine stocks without an increase in sales is likely to reduce future demand for wine and winegrapes. As a result, grape prices are unlikely to improve in the next few years.
Production
Results of the annual Wine Production, Sales and Inventory Survey of large winemakers in Australia indicated that total Australian wine production from the 2025 vintage was 1.13 billion litres, or 126 million nine-litre case equivalents. This was nice percent higher than in 2024, but seven percent below the 10-year average of 1.22 billion litres.
The production of red wine increased by 15 percent, while the production of white wine increased by two percent. Red wine returned to the larger share of production (52 percent) after falling below white in 2023-24.
Wine Australia manager, Market Insights, Peter Bailey said that the result was expected, after the grape crush in 2025 increased by 11 percent, with nearly 90 percent of the additional tonnes being red.
“Production was still below the 10-year average, but it was the second vintage in a row where the crush increased from the 20-year low in 2023, despite the high levels of stock going into the 2025 vintage,” Mr Bailey said.
Sales
The total volume of Australian wine sold in 2024-25 is estimated to be almost unchanged from the previous year at 1.08 billion litres (120 million nine-litre cases). Export sales accounted for 59 percent of sales by volume – an increase of one percentage point year-on-year, while domestic sales accounted for 41 percent.
Export sales increased by three percent to 638 million litres, driven by growth in exports to mainland China, which increased by 53 million litres to 85 million litres in the latest 12-month period.
Mr Bailey said the 85 million litres represents the first full financial year of normal trading since the tariffs on Australian wine to mainland China were lifted. Despite this, Mr Bailey noted that the volume exported to mainland China was less than half what it was at its peak in 2017-18.
“The difference in Australia’s current wine export volume to mainland China compared with its highest level equates to approximately 130,000 tonnes of winegrapes – mostly red,” Mr Bailey said.
“We don’t expect to see exports return to the peak levels because the market in mainland China, as well as global conditions generally, are now very different.”
On the domestic market, sales of Australian wine declined by three percent in volume to 443 million litres – seven percent below the 10-year average of 479 million litres and the second-lowest (after 2021-22) since 2007–08.
Mr Bailey said that after growing consistently between 2006-07 and 2016-17, sales of Australian wine domestically have been gradually declining for most of the past decade.
“Since peaking in 2016-17, sales of Australian wine at home have declined by around 57 million litres in total, or just over six million nine-litre case equivalents. At the same time, export markets have become more challenging, further compounding the decline in demand.”
The increase in production and static sales compared with 2023-24 meant that production exceeded sales by around 52 million litres or six million nine-litres cases (five percent) in 2024-25. This is the equivalent of around 75,000 tonnes.
“To match current sales, a vintage of around 1.5 million tonnes is required. Anything over that is likely to lead to increases in inventory” Mr Bailey said.
Inventory and stock-to-sales ratio
After showing positive downward adjustments in each of the previous two years from the record high reached in 2021-22, the national stock-to-sales ratio (SSR) increased by four percent in 2024-25 to 1.9, 15 percent above the 10-year average of 1.66, driven by a five percent increase in inventory.
“Currently there is an excess of around 262 million litres of wine in stock, based on the 2024-25 sales volume,” Mr Bailey said. “That is the equivalent of around 375,000 tonnes of winegrapes. To remove this excess, the next few vintages would need to be below the 1.5 million tonne level.”
The increase in overall SSR was driven by still white wine, which saw an increase in SSR of 19 percent to 1.59 (15 percent above the 10-year average of 1.38) as a result of the decline in sales combined with an increase in inventory. On the other hand, the SSR for still red wine decreased slightly to 2.12, but was still well above its 10-year average of 1.88.
Mr Bailey said that the rise in stock-to-sales ratio for white wine this year suggests there might have been an over-correction, after two years of strong demand when global supply was low, leading to an increase in the production of white wine and the price for white winegrapes in Australia.
“Without an accurate picture of our vineyard supply base, including new plantings and removals, it is very difficult to keep supply and demand in balance. With the support of Australian grapegrowers, the National Vineyard Register Project has the potential to provide an accurate, digital foundation dataset that can support this.”
The National Vineyard Register Project is managed by Wine Australia and funded by the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry.
The Australian Wine Production, Sales and Inventory Report 2025 is available here.
Updated price indicators for growers
The Wine Australia Grape Price Indicators Dashboard has been updated today with the latest figures from the Australian Wine Production, Sales and Inventory Report 2025 as well as global figures from the OIV World Wine Production Outlook November 2025 and the Ciatti Global Market report for November. The price indicator arrow has been refreshed based on the latest data.
The recently published Domestic Sales Dashboard has also been updated with the latest Australian domestic sales and inventory figures.