Australian wine exports to mainland China are back to $1.03 billion just a year after the tariffs were removed.
On the back of China, Australian wine exports increased by 41 percent in value to $2.64 billion and by six percent in volume to 647 million litres in the 12 months ended March 2025, according to Wine Australia’s Export Report.
In concerning news, exports to the rest of the world (excluding mainland China) declined by 13 percent in value to $1.62 billion and nine percent in volume to 551 million litres.
This was the lowest value to the rest of the world in ten years and the lowest volume in over twenty years.
While the decline in value was mainly driven by Hong Kong as sales transitioned to mainland China, the volume drop was due to the declines in exports key destinations such as the United Kingdom, United States and Canada.
The average value of exports increased by 33 percent to $4.09 per litre free on board (FOB), the highest average value in almost two decades.
Peter Bailey, manager, Market Insights, Wine Australia said, “The increase in average value is mainly due to the elevated level of premium wine shipments to mainland China, after tariffs on Australian bottled wine were removed at the end of March 2024.
“The 12 months ended March 2025 represented a full year’s worth of exports to mainland China since the tariffs were eliminated – resulting in 96 million litres of exports to the market, valued at $1.03 billion.
“While the total value of shipments to mainland China is now at a similar level to the years immediately before tariffs on Australian bottled wine came into force, volume in the last 12 months is 23 percent smaller than the five-year average between 2016 and 2020 and 44 percent below the peak in 2018.
“Additionally, the average value of packaged wine shipped to mainland China was $23 per litre, much higher than any other major export market.
“The lower volume and high average value demonstrate that mainland China is a premium market for Australian wine and will therefore not solve oversupply issues in Australia.”
Peter says the global wine market is facing considerable headwinds which are impacting on results for other markets aside from mainland China, and are unlikely to be resolved in the near term.
“While there has been a long-term trend of consumers drinking less alcohol due to health and wellness concerns, more recent cost-of-living pressures could continue or potentially get worse in certain markets, given the economic and political turmoil taking place globally,” he says.
“Escalating trade wars have the potential to increase prices, complicate supply chains and rapidly change the competitive landscape in key wine markets in the near term.”
On 2 April 2025, US President Trump announced tariffs on all importing countries, including Australia.
Australian wine is now subject to a 10 percent tariff on arrival in the US.
“At the time of publication, all other nations also had a 10 percent tariff applied, however the situation is evolving and there is still a lot of uncertainty about what the longer-term position might be,” Peter says.
“Because there are a number of factors to account for – how much of the increased cost will get passed on to consumers, the effect of a global trade war on foreign exchange rates, and whether consumers will start to switch to domestic wines – it is hard to predict how this will affect Australian wine exports to the US in the short-to-medium term.”
Australian wine exports to the US declined by 17 percent in volume to 106 million litres and nine percent in value to $323 million, making it Australia’s second-largest market by volume and third-largest market by value.
Exports to the US have been on a long-term decline, with Australian exports now at the lowest level since the early 2000s.
Australian wine exports to the UK, the largest export market by volume, declined by eight percent in volume to 208 million litres and three percent in value to $353 million.
Despite this decline, the number of exporters shipping to the UK increased to 314 businesses, up by 23 from the previous 12 months.
Of the top 20 exporters by value, 15 experienced a growth in export value in the past year.
Exports to Canada declined by 19 percent in volume to 60 million litres and increased by three percent in value to $151 million.
Average value grew by 27 percent to $2.53 per litre, driven by an increase in packaged exports with an average value of $5 per litre and above, and a decline in unpackaged exports.
Top five destinations by value
- Mainland China (up $1.01 billion to $1.03 billion),
- UK (down $12 million to $353 million),
- US (down $32 million to $323 million),
- Hong Kong (down $136 million to $154 million), and
- Canada (up $3.8 million to $151 million).
Top five destinations by volume
- UK (down 19 million litres to 208 million litres),
- US (down 21 million litres to 106 million litres),
- Mainland China (up 94 million litres to 96 million litres),
- Canada (down 14 million litres to 60 million litres), and
- New Zealand (down 3.5 million litres to 26 million litres).