Three-year export high on back of China

Australian wine exports increased by 34 percent in value to $2.39 billion and by seven percent in volume to 643 million litres in the 12 months ended September 2024.

This is according to Wine Australia’s Export Report.

These are the highest levels of shipments by both volume and value since the 12 months ended August 2021.

The growth was driven by the re-entry of Australian wine exports to mainland China following the removal of import duties on Australian bottled wine in late March 2024.

The value of shipments to mainland China increased by $604 million to $612 million, while volume increased by 58 million litres to 59 million litres.

Wine Australia manager, Market Insights, Peter Bailey said, “Although the September quarter was smaller than the June quarter in both volume and value, it was still significant – totalling 27 million litres worth $214 million.”

Figure 1. Value of exports to mainland China, MAT Sept 2024.

Of the 927 businesses exporting Australian wine to mainland China during the 12 months ended September 2024, the top ten exporters by value contributed 68 percent of the total value and 38 percent of total volume.

“While the export figures to mainland China are very positive, the impact on total export value is much larger than volume due to the premium price point of most wine entering the market,” Mr Bailey said.

“As such, this increase is unlikely to reduce the oversupply of red winegrapes in the warm inland regions.

“It’s important to note that shipments in these first six months are likely to be characteristic of restocking Australian wine after a long absence.

“Export levels are not equivalent to retail figures, and it will take time before it is evident how Chinese consumers are reacting to having Australian wine back in market.

“Despite this recent growth in exports, it is increasingly important to pursue market diversification and defend our share in other wine markets.”

Exports to all other destinations were stable in value at $1.78 billion and declined in volume by three percent to 585 million litres.

Figure 2. Total value of Australian wine exports – mainland China vs rest of world.

The most significant decline in volume was in exports to the United States, with nearly all the loss in volume (21 million litres) being unpackaged wine, following a surge in unpackaged wine to the market throughout 2022 and the start of 2023.

Exports to Canada stabilised in value as the decline in unpackaged wine eased.

Exports with an average value of $7.50 and above increased by 28 percent in value.

In Europe, growth in exports to the United Kingdom and Belgium more than offset declines to Germany, Denmark and Spain.

This resulted in a small increase overall for the region.

“Driving the results for markets, aside from mainland China, is the ongoing decline in global wine consumption as consumers moderate their alcohol consumption due to a more active focus on their health as well as cost-of-living pressures,” Mr Bailey said.

“Shipping delays and increased shipping costs due to regional conflicts are also making it harder for wine exporters to get their products into market.”

According to Trade Data Monitor, total wine exports of the world’s top 10 wine exporting countries dropped by three percent in volume in the year ended June 2024, with Italy, Spain, France, South Africa, Germany and New Zealand each reporting declines in wine exports.

Top five destinations by value:

Mainland China (up $604 million to $612 million)
UK (up $9 million to $362 million)
US (down $25 million to $341 million)
Hong Kong (up $65 million to $270 million), and
Canada (down $0.08 million to $147 million).

Top five destinations by volume:

UK (up 7 million litres to 222 million litres)
US (down 21 million litres to 113 million litres)
Canada (down 6 million litres to 68 million litres)
Mainland China (up 58 million litres to 59 million litres), and
New Zealand (down 5 million litres to 26 million litres).

Still red wine exports grew by 16 percent in volume to 356 million litres and 52 percent in value to $1.74 billion, due to growth in exports to mainland China.

Shiraz experienced the strongest growth, up by 20 percent in volume to 159 million litres. Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot exports also grew – up 11 and five percent respectively.

Still white wine exports declined in volume by five percent to 259 million litres and increased in value by 0.4 percent to $549 million.

White wine exports to the United States, New Zealand and Canada declined in volume but growth in exports to the United Kingdom and mainland China offset some of this decline.

Chardonnay remained the number one white variety, but exports declined by three percent in volume to 143 million litres.

Pinot Gris/Grigio and Sauvignon Blanc also declined by 10 and four percent in volume respectively.

What’s changed in China and the opportunity for Australian winemakers