The value of winegrape production in Australia is forecast to fall by 31 percent to $657 million in 2025-26, driven by falling prices and lower domestic production.
That is according to the March 2026 Agricultural Commodities Report released by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES).
“In 2026-27, the value of winegrape production is forecast to decrease by a further two percent to $644 million, with production and prices (in real terms) expected to remain 34 percent and 33 percent below 10-year averages respectively.”
Other key points from the report:
• Value of Australian wine exports to fall by 5 percent to $2.3 billion in 2026-27.
• Average winegrape prices to continue falling into 2026-27 and remain below long-term average levels.
• Real value of winegrape production and exports to moderate over the medium term to 2030-31.
The report says red winegrape production value is expected to decline in 2025-26 and 2026-27, reflecting a combination of expected lower production volumes and continued weak prices.
“Excess red wine inventories, declining global consumption and limited winemaker demand are expected to keep red winegrape prices well below long-term averages, particularly in warm inland regions,” says the report.
“White winegrape production value is also expected to fall in 2025-26 and 2026-27.
“Increased white wine production, particularly of Chardonnay and Sauvignon Blanc (including higher New Zealand production), combined with weak winemaker demand, is expected to place significant downward pressure on prices.”
ABARES says winegrape prices are expected to fall across inland production regions in 2025-26 and 2026-27.
“Declining global and domestic demand for wine as well as continued high inventories are putting downward pressure on prices.
“Prices for red varietals in warm inland regions are forecast to fall in 2025-26 by approximately 20 percent for Shiraz, Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot grapes, driven by low winemaker demand to service both premium and bulk markets.”
Prices for white varietals in warm inland regions are expected to fall by 12-17 percent in 2025-26.
ABARES says the value of wine exports is forecast to fall by six percent to $2.4 billion in 2025-26, reflecting subdued global economic growth and weaker import demand across Australia’s major export markets.
“Wine export value is forecast to fall an additional five percent to $2.3 billion in 2026-27,” the report says.
“The decline is expected to be driven primarily by mainland China, where shipments have started to ease following the post-tariff restocking period, and weaker export values to the United Kingdom and United States.
“The softer export outlook is consistent with the longer-term decline in global wine consumption.
“Cost-of-living pressures, changing consumer preferences towards lower alcohol alternatives and higher wholesaler inventories, particularly in the US, are all weighing on exports.
“Ongoing global economic uncertainty and continuing trade barriers are expected to continue to weigh on consumer confidence and discretionary spending, further constraining wine demand in the short term.”
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